They're "educated" guesses. Big difference. If the evidence was so concrete, why such a large disparity in the predictions of catastrophic consequences? Some models predict irreversible harm within the next 150 years, others predict it as soon as 2030. That's a pretty wide range for such "certain" conclusions.
Now you have to provide two links. One to a credible source stating a model which predicts "irreversible harm within the next 150 years" and one to a credible source stating a model whcih predicts "irreversible harm as soon as 2030".
Secondly, it's not because everyone agrees the ball will roll of the hill that everyone agrees where it will land.
MadAce wrote:2) There has been more research-hours put in global warming that Einstein's theories
And the one thing virtually the entire consensus can agree on is that their predictions are based on computer modeling that may contain large inaccuracies.
Now you have to provide me with a credible source stating "global warming is purely based on computer modells that may contain large inaccuracies".
BTW, the consensus isn't about HOW the conclusions were formed (you suggesgted computer modells) but in fact there is a consensus on the conclusions.
MadAce wrote:3) "Theory" in scientific language doesn't mean the same as "theory"
"Theory" means unproven, even in science. Evidence can support the theory without proving it. Once proven, it ceases being a theory.
Oh dear...
"In the sciences generally, scientific theories are constructed from elementary theorems that consist in
empirical data about observable phenomena. A scientific theory is used as a plausible general principle or body of principles offered to explain a phenomenon."
Not only that:
"A scientific theory is a deductive theory, in that, its content is based on some formal system of logic and that some of its elementary theorems are taken as axioms."
Now comes the point where you will start discrediting and attempting to "debuke" logic. Good luck with that.
MadAce wrote:4) Even with the "limited" knowledge of the Earth's climate still every climate scientist on the planet has been forced to acknowledge the consensus. To say it in science-speak: It's bleedin obvious.
"Every climate scientist on the planet"? It's been shown that there are at least 31k scientists in the USA alone that don't share in the consensus.
Scientists, yes. Not particularely climate scientists. I'm not entirely sure why I should trust a Professor of Medecine with his opinion of Climate change. After all, we've known an immense tendency for specialization in the sciences the past century.
And I'm also not that convinced that this petition (not research in any shape or form, so no credibility in any shape or form) is credible. Note that it was sent out by the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine... Among which are guys who deny important parts of evolution...
It was acheived by spamming thousands of "scientists" (according to what definition?). According to the National Science Foundation, there are more than half a million science or engineering PhDs in the United States (9K of which signed the petition), and ten million individuals with first degrees in science or engineering. And basically anyone can sign, even nuts like Al Caruba.
Since it's apparently fair game around here I'm going to post a blog. But of course the guy in my blog sourced his rant:
http://energysolutionswecanbelievein.bl ... ation.htmlAnd what credible news agencies say about the petition:
In May 1998 the Seattle Times wrote:
“ Several environmental groups questioned dozens of the names: "Perry S. Mason" (the fictitious lawyer?), "Michael J. Fox" (the actor?), "Robert C. Byrd" (the senator?), "John C. Grisham" (the lawyer-author?). And then there's the Spice Girl, a k a. Geraldine Halliwell: The petition listed "Dr. Geri Halliwell" and "Dr. Halliwell."
Asked about the pop singer, Robinson said he was duped. The returned petition, one of thousands of mailings he sent out, identified her as having a degree in microbiology and living in Boston. "When we're getting thousands of signatures there's no way of filtering out a fake," he said.
”
In a 2005 op-ed in the Hawaii Reporter, Todd Shelly wrote:
“ In less than 10 minutes of casual scanning, I found duplicate names (Did two Joe R. Eaglemans and two David Tompkins sign the petition, or were some individuals counted twice?), single names without even an initial (Biolchini), corporate names (Graybeal & Sayre, Inc. How does a business sign a petition?), and an apparently phony single name (Redwine, Ph.D.). These examples underscore a major weakness of the list: there is no way to check the authenticity of the names. Names are given, but no identifying information (e.g., institutional affiliation) is provided. Why the lack of transparency? ”
Safe to say no one actually takes the petition seriously.
BTW, you should realize that a consensus doesn't mean everyone agrees. Just a majority. Tho in this case it's a very large majority.
Keep in mind as you stammer along that we're not talking about the current warming trend, we're talking about the human causation of that trend. Yes, the planet is in a warming trend, the same sort of warming trend it has gone through countless times before in it's existance.
What NASA has to say about your little rant:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Featur ... gQandA/#02And your comments about "Scientists just make stuf up as they go" are just too pathetic to dignify a proper response.
Neither is anyone arguing that we should keep polluting like it doesn't matter. What we are saying is that the true and indisputable evidence of human causation is far too inconclusive to start destroying economies in order to enact fixes that science can't prove are needed or will fix anything.
Somehow you're assuming "economies will be destroyed".
Are you... By any chance... (long shot here)... Biased?